43rd International Energy Workshop - IEW 2025, Nara (Japan). 10-13 June 2025
Summary:
The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This paper presents a novel decision support framework that guides the selection of robust policy packages based on their performance across multiple objectives under uncertainty. Our method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. We introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.
Spanish layman's summary:
Este estudio presenta un marco para diseñar paquetes de políticas energéticas robustos frente a futuros inciertos. Aplicado al caso español, combina escenarios, nuevos indicadores de robustez y un modelo energético para identificar políticas y trayectorias clave.
English layman's summary:
We present a framework to design robust energy policy packages that perform well across uncertain futures. Using scenario discovery and new robustness indicators, we identify key levers and pathways for decarbonization, applied here to the Spanish energy system.
Keywords: Energy policy, Robust decision-making, Policy package design, Deep uncertainty, Decision-support method.
Publication date: 2025-06-10.
Citation:
A.F. Rodríguez Matas, T.B. Wild, P. Linares, J.R. Lamontagne, D. Domínguez-Barbero, Navigating uncertainty in the energy transition: Evaluating policy levers for robust decarbonization strategies, 43rd International Energy Workshop - IEW 2025, Nara (Japan). 10-13 June 2025.
